Q5 is true if (as you assumed), the space of lotteries is the space of distributions over a finite set. (For a general convex set, you can get long-line phenomena.)
First, without proof, I'll state the following generalization.
Theorem 1. Let be a relation on a convex space satisfying axioms A1, A2, A3, and the following additional continuity axiom. For all , the set
is open in . Then, there exists a function from to the long line such that iff .
The proof is not too different, but simpler, if we also assume A4. In particular, we no longer need the extra continuity axiom, and we get a stronger conclusion. Nate sketched part of the proof of this already, but I want to be clearer about what is stated and skip fewer steps. In particular, I'm not sure how Nate's hypotheses rule out examples that require long-line-valued functions—maybe he's assuming that the domain of the preference relation is a finite-dimensional simplex like I am, but none of his arguments use this explicitly.
Theorem 2. Let be a relation on a finite-dimensional simplex satisfying axioms A1-A4. Then, there is a quasiconcave function such that iff .
First, I'll set up some definitions and a lemma. For any lotteries , , let denote the line segment
We say that preferences are increasing along a line segment if whenever , we have
We will also use open and half-open interval notation in the corresponding way.
Lemma. Let be a preference relation on a finite-dimensional simplex satisfying axioms A1-A4. Then, there are -minimal and -maximal elements in .
Proof. First, we show that there is a minimal element. Axiom A4 states that for any mixture , either or . By induction, it follows more generally that any convex combination C of finitely many elements satisfies for some . But every element is a convex combination of the vertices of , so some vertex of is -minimal.
The proof that there is a maximal element is more complex. Consider the family of sets
This is a prefilter, so since is compact ( here carries the Euclidean metric), it has a cluster point . Either will be a maximal element, or we will find some other maximal element. In particular, take any . We are done if is a maximal element; otherwise, pick . By the construction of , for every , we can pick some within a distance of from B. Now, if we show that itself satisfies , it will follow that is maximal.
The idea is to pass from our sequence , with limit , to another sequence lying on a line segment with endpoint . We can use axiom A4, which is a kind of convexity, to control the preference relation on convex combinations of our points , so these are the points that we will construct along a line segment. Once we have this line segment, we can finish by using A3, which is a kind of continuity restricted to line segments, to control itself.
Let be the set of lotteries in the affine span of the set . Then, if we take some index set such that is a maximal affinely independent tuple, it follows that affinely generates . Hence, the convex combination
i.e. the barycenter of the simplex with vertices at , is in the interior of the convex hull of relative to , so we can pick some such that the -ball around relative to is contained in this simplex.
Now, we will see that every lottery in the set satisfies . For any , pick so that is in the -ball around . Since the tangent vector has length less than , the lottery
is in the -ball around , and it is in , so it is in the simplex with vertices . Then, by A4, and by hypothesis. So, applying A4 again,
Using A4 one more time, it follows that every lottery
satisfies , and hence every lottery .
Now we can finish up. If then, using A3 and the fact that , there would have to be some lottery in that is -equivalent to A, but this would contradict what we just concluded. So, , and so B is -maximal.
Proof of Theorem 2. Let be a -minimal and a -maximal element of . First, we will see that preferences are increasing on , and then we will use this fact to construct a function and show that it has the desired properties. Suppose preferences we not increasing; then, there would be such that is closer to while is closer to , and . Then, would be a convex combination of and , but by the maximality of , contradicting A4.
Now we can construct our utility function using A3; for each -class , we have , so there is some[1] such that
Then, let for all . Since preferences are increasing on , it is immediate that if , then . Conversely, if , we have two cases. If , then , so , and so . Finally, if , then by construction.
Finally, since for all we have iff , it follows immediately that is quasiconcave by A4.
Nate mentions using choice in his answer, but here at least the use of choice is removable. Since is monotone on , the intersection of the -class with is a subinterval of , so we can pick based on the midpoint of that interval
The answers to Q3, Q4 and Q6 are all no. I will give a sketchy argument here.
Consider the one dimensional case, where the lotteries are represented by real numbers in the interval , and consider the function given by . Let be the preference order given by if and only if .
is continuous and quasi-concave, which means is going to satisfy A1, A2, A3, A4, and B2. Further, since is monotonically increasing up to the unique argmax, and then monotonically decreasing, is going to satisfy A5.
is not concave, but we need to show there is not another concave function giving the same preference relation as . The only way to keep the same preference relation is to compose with a strictly monotonic function , so ).
If is smooth, we have a problem, since . However, since, must be on some , but concavity would require to be decreasing.
In order to remove the inflection point at , we need to flatten it out with some that has infinite slope at . For example, we could take . However, any f that removes the inflection point at , will end up adding an inflection point at , which will have a infinite negate slope. This newly created inflection point will cause a problem for similar reasons.
The answer to Q1 is no, using the same counter example here. However, the spirit of my original question lives on in Q4 (and Q6).
Claim: A1, A2, A3, A5, and B2 imply A4.
Proof: Assume we have a preference ordering that satisfies A1, A2, A3, A5, and B2, and consider lotteries , and , with . Let . It suffices to show . Assume not, for the purpose of contradiction. Then (by axiom A1), . Thus by axiom B2 there exists a such that . By axiom A3, we may assume for some . Observe that where . is positive, since otherwise . Thus, we can apply A5 to get that since , we have . Thus , a contradiction.
No on Q4? I think Alex's counterexample applies to Q4 as well.
(EDIT: Scott points out I'm wrong here, Alex's counterexample doesn't apply, and mine violates A5.)
In particular I think A4 and A5 don't imply anything about the rate of change as we move between lotteries, so we can have movements too sharp to be concave. We only have quasi-concavity.
My version of the counterexample: you have two outcomes and , we prefer anything with equally, and we otherwise prefer higher .
If you give me a corresponding , it must satisfy , but convexity demands that , which in this case means , a contradiction.
This post will just be a concrete math question. I am interested in this question because I have recently come tor reject the independence axiom of VNM, and am thus playing with some weaker versions.
Let Ω be a finite set of deterministic outcomes. Let L be the space of all lotteries over these outcomes, and let ⪰ be a relation on L. We write A∼B if A ⪰ B and B ⪰ A. We write A≻B if A⪰B but not A∼B.
Here are some axioms we can assume about ⪰:
A1. For all A,B∈L, either A⪰B or B⪰A (or both).
A2. For all A,B,C∈L, if A⪰B, and B⪰C, then A⪰C.
A3. For all A,B,C∈L, if A⪰B, and B⪰C, then there exists a p∈[0,1] such that B∼pA+(1−p)C.
A4. For all A,B∈L, and p∈[0,1] if A⪰B, then pA+(1−p)B⪰B.
A5. For all A,B∈L, and p∈[0,1], if p>0 and B⪰pA+(1−p)B, then B⪰A.
Here is one bonus axiom:
B1. For all A,B,C∈L, and p∈[0,1], A⪰B if and only if pA+(1−p)C⪰pB+(1−p)C.
(Note that B1 is stronger than both A4 and A5)
Finally, here are some conclusions of successively increasing strength:
C1. There exists a function u:L→[0,1] such that A⪰B if and only if u(A)≥u(B).
C2. Further, we require u is quasi-concave.
C3. Further, we require u is continuous.
C4. Further, we require u is concave.
C5. Further, we require u is linear.
The standard VNM utility theorem can be thought of as saying A1, A2, A3, and B1 together imply C5.
Here is the main question I am curious about:
Q1: Do A1, A2, A3, A4, and A5 together imply C4? [ANSWER: NO]
(If no, how can we salvage C4, by adding or changing some axioms?)
Here are some sub-questions that would constitute significant partial progress, and that I think are interesting in their own right:
Q2: Do A1, A2, A3, and A4 together imply C3? [ANSWER: NO]
Q3: Do C3 and A5 together imply C4? [ANSWER: NO]
(Feel free to give answers that are only partial progress, and use this space to think out loud or discuss anything else related to weaker versions of VNM.)
EDIT:
AlexMennen actually resolved the question in the negative as stated, but my curiosity is not resolved, since his argument is violating continuity, and I really care about concavity. My updated main question is now:
Q4: Do A1, A2, A3, A4, and A5 together imply that there exists a concave function u:L→[0,1] such that A⪰B if and only if u(A)≥u(B)? [ANSWER: NO]
(i.e. We do not require u to be continuous.)
This modification also implies interest in the subquestion:
Q5: Do A1, A2, A3, and A4 together imply C2?
EDIT 2:
Here is another bonus axiom:
B2. For all A,B∈L, if A≻B, then there exists some C∈L such that A≻C≻B.
(Really, we don't need to assume C is already in L. We just need it to be possible to add a C, and extend our preferences in a way that satisfies the other axioms, and A3 will imply that such a lottery was already in L. We might want to replace this with a cleaner axiom later.)
Q6: Do A1, A2, A3, A5, and B2 together imply C4? [ANSWER: NO]
EDIT 3:
We now have negative answers to everything other than Q5, which I still think is pretty interesting. We could also weaken Q5 to include other axioms, like A5 and B2. Weakening the conclusion doesn't help, since it is easy to get C2 from C1 and A4.
I would still really like some axioms that get us all the way to a concave function, but I doubt there will be any simple ones. Concavity feels like it really needs more structure that does not translate well to a preference relation.