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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

Edited by Ruben Bloom, Raymond Arnold last updated 26th Aug 2020

Forecasts (Specific Predictions). This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in . Related: .

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry.  – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

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Forecasting and Prediction
Posts tagged Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
191AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like
Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V, Romeo Dean
3mo
2
117What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
33
86What will GPT-2030 look like?
Jacob Steinhardt
2y
2
50Clarifying and predicting AGI
Richard Ngo
2y
16
41Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Q
Amanda Ngo, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ben Pace, datscilly
5y
Q
33
23Before smart AI, there will be many mediocre or specialized AIs
Lukas Finnveden
2y
4
13Forecasting time to automated superhuman coders [AI 2027 Timelines Forecast]
elifland, Nikola Jurkovic
3mo
0
25Thoughts on hardware / compute requirements for AGI
Steve Byrnes
2y
25
17Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett, Metaculus
4y
3
20PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in "Extrapolating GPT-N performance"
Lukas Finnveden
2y
6
11Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
Jacob Steinhardt
3y
0
35LLM chatbots have ~half of the kinds of "consciousness" that humans believe in. Humans should avoid going crazy about that.
Andrew Critch
8mo
3
7AI 2027 - Rogue Replication Timeline
Alvin Ånestrand
1mo
0
4Forecasting AGI: Insights from Prediction Markets and Metaculus
Alvin Ånestrand
5mo
0
2What if Agent-4 breaks out?
Alvin Ånestrand
2mo
0
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