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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

Edited by Ruby, Raemon last updated 26th Aug 2020

Forecasts (Specific Predictions). This tag is for specific predictions about unknown facts or future events. Discussion of the practice of making forecasts can be found in Forecasting and Prediction. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry.  – Making Beliefs Pay Rent

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Posts tagged Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
190AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like
Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V, romeo
6mo
2
120What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
33
86What will GPT-2030 look like?
jsteinhardt
2y
2
50Clarifying and predicting AGI
Richard_Ngo
2y
16
41Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Q
Amandango, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ben Pace, datscilly
5y
Q
33
23Before smart AI, there will be many mediocre or specialized AIs
Lukas Finnveden
2y
4
13Forecasting time to automated superhuman coders [AI 2027 Timelines Forecast]
elifland, Nikola Jurkovic
6mo
0
27Thoughts on hardware / compute requirements for AGI
Steven Byrnes
3y
25
17Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett, Metaculus
4y
3
20PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in "Extrapolating GPT-N performance"
Lukas Finnveden
2y
6
16Three Types of Intelligence Explosion
rosehadshar, Tom Davidson, wdmacaskill
7mo
0
11Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
3y
0
37LLM chatbots have ~half of the kinds of "consciousness" that humans believe in. Humans should avoid going crazy about that.
Andrew_Critch
11mo
3
10AI 2027 - Rogue Replication Timeline
Alvin Ånestrand
5mo
0
4Forecasting AGI: Insights from Prediction Markets and Metaculus
Alvin Ånestrand
8mo
0
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