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AI Timelines

Edited by Ben Pace last updated 29th Jul 2020

AI Timelines is the discussion of how long until various major milestones in AI progress are achieved, whether it's the timeline until a human-level AI is developed, the timeline until certain benchmarks are defeated, the timeline until we can simulate a mouse-level intelligence, or something else.

This is to be distinguished from the closely related question of AI takeoff speeds, which is about the dynamics of AI progress after human-level AI is developed (e.g. will it be a single project or the whole economy that sees growth, how fast will that growth be, etc).

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Posts tagged AI Timelines
75Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
5y
44
50Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
4y
76
41Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Q
Amandango, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ben Pace, datscilly
5y
Q
33
28My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
zhukeepa
5y
0
39Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lukas Finnveden
5y
19
34Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky, CarlShulman
4y
5
71Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
45
54Conjecture internal survey: AGI timelines and probability of human extinction from advanced AI
Maris Sala
2y
0
53Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
5y
10
16Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
anson.ho
3y
0
47Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
5y
27
188AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like
Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V, romeo
5mo
2
119What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
4y
33
36Developmental Stages of GPTs
orthonormal
5y
43
115How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years
joshc
6mo
12
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